Why Past Data Can’t Predict the Future of Consumer Behaviour

Marketers and advertisers rely heavily on data-driven insights to understand consumer behavior. However, there’s a hidden flaw in this approach: big data is based on past behaviors, but consumer decisions are shaped by context—and context can change dramatically.

Pexels / Markus Spiske

As Rory Sutherland points out, “Perception may map neatly onto behavior, but in reality, behavior does not map neatly onto perception.” In simpler terms, what people perceive to be true may guide their actions, but their actual behavior can change unexpectedly when the context shifts. To illustrate this, consider the fax machine in 1993. At the time, businesses depended on it for communication, and all behavioral data from that era would have suggested continued success. Yet, a single technological shift—the rise of email and the internet—made fax machines obsolete. If marketers had based long-term strategies solely on past fax usage data, they would have been completely misled. This example highlights a critical marketing lesson: consumer behavior isn’t fixed—it evolves with changing contexts.

Marketers often assume that people make rational choices based on clear preferences. However, context, environment, and emotions play a huge role in shaping behavior. For example, imagine two identical bottles of water—one priced at ₹20 in a supermarket and the other at ₹80 in a luxury hotel. Consumers might hesitate to buy the expensive one at first, but in a high-end setting, they perceive the cost as normal and might even see the higher price as a sign of quality and exclusivity. The product hasn’t changed—but the context has, and with it, consumer behavior shifts dramatically. Similarly, people might say they prefer healthier food choices, but fast-food brands like McDonald's continue to thrive. Why? Because in certain contexts—when they’re hungry, in a rush, or craving comfort food—convenience and taste override their previously stated preferences.

One of the biggest mistakes marketers make is assuming that past consumer behavior will dictate future trends. However, all big data comes from the same place: the past. While data is valuable, it cannot account for unpredictable contextual shifts—such as new technology, social trends, or economic changes. For instance, ride-sharing services like Uber and Ola disrupted the taxi industry because past behavioral data didn’t account for a shift in convenience, app-based booking, and cashless payments. Similarly, streaming services like Netflix replaced DVD rentals because consumer behavior adapted to a new, more convenient way to access entertainment. Had marketers relied purely on old data, they would have invested in improving taxi services or DVD rental stores instead of recognizing the massive opportunity in digital disruption.

To stay ahead, brands must go beyond historical data and focus on contextual insights. Instead of asking, “What did customers do in the past?”, they should ask, “What triggers their choices in different situations?” Experimenting with new pricing models, product placements, or marketing messages can uncover shifts in consumer behavior that data alone might miss. Additionally, brands need to monitor emerging trends and remain flexible in their strategies to adapt when consumer preferences shift.

Consumer behavior is not set in stone—it’s shaped by perception, emotions, and ever-changing contexts. While big data can offer insights, it cannot predict the future. The rise and fall of the fax machine, DVDs, and traditional taxis all prove that one small change in context can redefine an entire industry. For marketers and advertisers, the key to long-term success is understanding not just what consumers did in the past, but what might shape their decisions tomorrow.

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